Apple CEO Tim Cook holds the new iPhone 17 Pro during an Apple Special event at Apple’s headquarters in Cupertino, California on September 09, 2025.
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Apple Counterpoint Research said in a note on Wednesday that it is set to ship more smartphones than Samsung in 2025, the first time it will do so in 14 years.
Counterpoint told CNBC that Apple will ship about 243 million iPhone units this year, compared to 235 million shipments from Samsung. Apple has a 19.4% share of the global smartphone market while Samsung’s share will be 18.7%.
Shipments refer to the number of devices that sellers ship through retail channels and are not the same as direct sales. However, they provide insight into demand and sales expectations from smartphone makers.
Apple’s success is coming Powered by its iPhone 17 series launched in SeptemberWhich, according to Counterpoint, was a “bumper” holiday sales season.
US sales of the iPhone 17 series — including the iPhone Air — were 12% higher than the iPhone 16 series, excluding the iPhone 16e, during the first four weeks after launch, the research firm said. In China, an important market for Apple, sales of the iPhone 17 series were 18% higher than its predecessor during the same period.
“Besides the extremely positive market reception for the iPhone 17 series, the main driver behind the upgraded shipment outlook lies in the replacement cycle reaching its inflection point. Consumers who bought smartphones during the Covid-19 boom are now entering their upgrade phase,” said Yang Wang, senior analyst at Counterpoint Research.
Samsung, meanwhile, could face challenges in the low-to-mid tier of the smartphone market from Chinese players, which could hamper the South Korean giant’s ability to reclaim the top spot, Counterpoint said.
Apple long-term boost
Counterpoint Research predicts that Apple will retain the top position in the global smartphone market through 2029. Analysts have pointed out several reasons for this.
First, 358 million second-hand iPhones were sold between 2023 and the second quarter of 2025.
“These users are also likely to upgrade to the new iPhone in the coming years. These factors will form a strong demand base, which is expected to sustain iPhone shipment growth in the coming quarters,” Counterpoint Research said.
Apple benefited from a smaller-than-expected impact of tariffs Given the trade truce between the US and China. This helped Apple’s broader supply chain and growth in specific regions such as emerging markets. The tech giant also benefited from a weaker US dollar and a “resilient economic outlook” that boosted consumer confidence.
“With these structural tailwinds, Apple is well positioned to overtake Samsung in annual shipments in 2025,” Wang said.
Meanwhile, Apple is expected to launch the entry-level iPhone 17e next year as well as a foldable smartphone, counterpoint forecasts. The research firm said it expects Previously-announced improvements to Apple’s virtual assistant Siri As well as a “major iPhone design overhaul” in 2027, to further strengthen Apple’s dominance over the next few years.
“By expanding its lineup across multiple price tiers, including a growing “e” series and possible adjustments to the Pro and base launch cycles, Apple is strategically positioning itself to capture growing demand from aspiring consumers, particularly in emerging markets and strengthen its presence in the lower premium segment, which is projected to grow faster than the market.”
“Given the growing prominence for the iOS ecosystem, compatibility between devices and the renewal of a significant number of older models in Apple’s installed base, Apple will maintain its lead over other smartphone OEMs through the end of the decade.”
